Can the sentiment score be used to predict the outcome of a sports event? We have taken a look at the result of the 100 first football matches that we determined the sentiment score for.
Methodology:
We employed a sentiment analysis tool written in Python. The analysis compares. the percentage of posts that the algorithm regarded as positive, negative or neutral. Minimum requirement 500 social media posts. All teams were analyzed either on the day of the match or the evening before. A +10% difference in sentiment score was used as a base line to compare teams with stronger scores against weaker.
May update ( until 9th of june)
Results:
Out of the 100 matches studied 53 had a team that had a sentiment score that was more than 10% units stronger than its opponent. The average points scored by those teams were 1.70.
We can compare that value to a completely random event. If the outcome of a match was completely random a team would win one match, draw one match and lose one if they only played three matches.
That would result in 3+1+0= 4 points, since a win gives 3 points and a draw 1 point.
Divided by 3 we get an average of 1.33.
In comparison last year according to socecerstats.com the home team won 41% of their matches in Premier League and 27% were a draw. That represents an average score of 1.50 for the home team.
Conclusions:
While the sample size is too small to make any certain conclusion, there seems to be a fairly strong correlation between team performance, and their sentiment score. A 10 points better sentiment score is a bigger advantage than having the home field advantage.
| Match nr. | Home/Away | Team | Sentiment | Points | Points for +10% teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home | Brentford | 28,80% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Watford | 16,40% | 0 | ||
| 2 | Home | Crystal Palace | 2,80% | 3 | |
| Away | Everton | 24,00% | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Home | AS Roma | 6,20% | 3 | |
| Away | Spezia | 5,40% | 0 | ||
| 4 | Home | Cadiz | -7,40% | 1 | |
| Away | Granada | -5,60% | 1 | ||
| 5 | Home | Hammarby | 31,00% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | AIK | 17,00% | 0 | ||
| 6 | Home | Norwich | 17,60% | 0 | |
| Away | Aston Villa | 29,80% | 3 | 3 | |
| 7 | Home | Manchster City | 50,20% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Leeds | 39,20% | 0 | ||
| 8 | Home | Brighton & Hove Albion | 29,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 26,20% | 3 | 0 | |
| 9 | Home | Barcelona | 22,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Bayern | 4,00% | 3 | ||
| 10 | Home | Celta Vigo | -7,40% | 3 | |
| Away | Espanyol | 6,80% | 0 | ||
| 11 | Home | Lazio | 1,60% | 3 | |
| Away | Genoa | 6,40% | 0 | ||
| 12 | Home | Atletico Madrid | 20,00% | 1 | |
| Away | FC Porto | 20,00% | 1 | ||
| 13 | Home | Real Madrid | 23,40% | 3 | |
| Away | Inter | 17,00% | 0 | ||
| 14 | Home | Leicester | 11,70% | 1 | |
| Away | Napoli | 17,00% | 1 | ||
| 15 | Home | Barcelona | -23,00% | 3 | |
| Away | Elche | -13,40% | 0 | ||
| 16 | Home | Real Madrid | 4,20% | 1 | |
| Away | Cadiz | -2,40% | 1 | ||
| 17 | Home | Norwich | 3,60% | 0 | |
| Away | Liverpool | 43,60% | 3 | 3 | |
| 18 | Home | Mallorca | -13,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Osasuna | -9,60% | 3 | ||
| 19 | Home | Milan | 29,80% | 0 | |
| Away | Atletico Madrid | 20,00% | 3 | ||
| 20 | Home | Zaragoza | 9,50% | 1 | 1 |
| Away | Huesca | -1,50% | 1 | ||
| 21 | Home | Hoffenheim | 25,00% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Köln | -14,50% | 0 | ||
| 22 | Home | Club Brugge | 4,40% | 0 | |
| Away | Manchster City | 62,00% | 3 | 3 | |
| 23 | Home | Helsinki | 0,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 12,00% | 3 | 3 | |
| 24 | Home | 05 Mainz | -17,50% | 3 | |
| Away | Augsburg | -18,50% | 0 | ||
| 25 | Home | Häcken | 16,50% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Halmstad | -0,50% | 3 | ||
| 26 | Home | Köln | -3,50% | 1 | |
| Away | Bayer Leverkusen | 2,00% | 1 | ||
| 27 | Home | Mjällby | 5,00% | 0 | |
| Away | IFK Göteborg | 9,00% | 3 | ||
| 28 | Home | Levante | -11,60% | 0 | |
| Away | Valencia | 2,20% | 3 | 3 | |
| 29 | Home | Villareal | -23,60% | 3 | |
| Away | Deportivo Alaves | 3,60% | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | Home | Sevilla | -1,20% | 1 | |
| Away | FC Barcelona | 3,40% | 1 | ||
| 31 | Home | Örebro | 0,50% | 0 | |
| Away | Degerfors | 12,00% | 3 | 3 | |
| 32 | Home | Arsenal | 20,50% | 3 | |
| Away | Leeds | 65,00% | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | Home | Rayo Vallecano | -4,00% | 3 | |
| Away | FC Barcelona | -0,50% | 0 | ||
| 34 | Home | Celta Vigo | -2,50% | 0 | |
| Away | Real Sociedad | -1,50% | 3 | ||
| 35 | Home | Leicester | 67,70% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Arsenal | 36,70% | 3 | ||
| 36 | Home | Norwich | 9,70% | 0 | |
| Away | Leeds | 66,00% | 3 | 3 | |
| 37 | Home | Malmö FF | 67,70% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Chelsea | 27,70% | 3 | ||
| 38 | Home | Milan | 19,70% | 1 | 1 |
| Away | Porto | 4,70% | 1 | ||
| 39 | Home | Southampton | 33,70% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Aston Villa | 13,00% | 0 | ||
| 40 | Home | Bilbao | -6,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Cadiz | -4,70% | 3 | ||
| 41 | Home | Manchester United | 88,20% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Manchester City | 43,80% | 3 | ||
| 42 | Home | Celta Vigo | -0,80% | 1 | |
| Away | FC Barcelona | 17,80% | 1 | 1 | |
| 43 | Home | Brighton & Hove Albion | 45,20% | 1 | |
| Away | Newcastle | 78,00% | 1 | 1 | |
| 44 | Home | Everton | 23,80% | 1 | |
| Away | Tottenham | 30,80% | 1 | ||
| 45 | Home | West Ham | 52,60% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Liverpool | 29,00% | 0 | ||
| 46 | Home | Real Betis | -40,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Sevilla | 2,80% | 3 | 3 | |
| 47 | Home | Oldham | 42,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Ipswich | 43,40% | 3 | ||
| 48 | Home | Liverpool | 27,30% | 3 | |
| Away | Arsenal | 31,60% | 0 | ||
| 49 | Home | Rayo Vallecano | 0,60% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Mallorca | -14,70% | 0 | ||
| 50 | Home | Villareal | -1,10% | 0 | |
| Away | Manchester United | 84,80% | 3 | 3 | |
| 51 | Home | FC Barcelona | -2,20% | 0 | |
| Away | Benfica | -1,80% | 0 | ||
| 52 | Home | Atletico Madrid | 4,80% | 0 | |
| Away | Milan | 3,00% | 3 | ||
| 53 | Home | Club Brugge | 7,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Leipzig | -0,60% | 3 | ||
| 54 | Home | Bayer Leverkusen | -5,80% | 3 | |
| Away | Celtic | 16,00% | 0 | 0 | |
| 55 | Home | Villareal | 9,50% | 0 | |
| Away | FC Barcelona | 4,80% | 3 | ||
| 56 | Home | Chelsea | 51,60% | 1 | |
| Away | Manchester United | 77,20% | 1 | 1 | |
| 57 | Home | Elfsborg | -6,20% | 0 | |
| Away | AIK | 6,60% | 3 | 3 | |
| 58 | Home | Southampton | 35,80% | 1 | 1 |
| Away | Leicester | 17,80% | 1 | ||
| 59 | Home | Tottenham | 45,80% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Brentford | 22,60% | 0 | ||
| 60 | Home | Granada | 3,20% | 3 | |
| Away | Alaves | -1,20% | 0 | ||
| 61 | Home | Celta Vigo | -10,40% | 0 | |
| Away | Valencia | -1,20% | 3 | ||
| 62 | Home | Leipzig | -7,60% | 3 | |
| Away | Manchester City | 31,00% | 0 | 0 | |
| 63 | Home | PSG | 3,00% | 3 | |
| Away | Club Brugge | 4,40% | 0 | ||
| 64 | Home | Milan | 33,40% | 0 | |
| Away | Liverpool | 47,00% | 3 | 3 | |
| 65 | Home | Atalanta | 24,20% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Villareal | -4,40% | 3 | ||
| 66 | Home | Manchester City | 16,60% | 3 | |
| Away | Leicester | 27,20% | 0 | 0 | |
| 67 | Home | Norwich | 10,60% | 0 | |
| Away | Arsenal | 39,00% | 3 | 3 | |
| 68 | Home | Newcastle | 93,40% | 1 | 1 |
| Away | Manchester United | 53,00% | 1 | ||
| 69 | Home | Watford | 27,00% | 0 | |
| Away | West Ham | 34,20% | 3 | ||
| 70 | Home | Southampton | 22,20% | 1 | |
| Away | Tottenham | 36,80% | 1 | 1 | |
| 71 | Home | Crystal Palace | 24,20% | 3 | |
| Away | Norwich | 27,40% | 0 | ||
| 72 | Home | Chelsea | 32,60% | 1 | |
| Away | Brighton & Hove Albion | 40,40% | 1 | ||
| 73 | Home | Brentford | 20,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Mancheter City | 89,40% | 3 | 3 | |
| 74 | Home | Valencia | -5,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Espanyol | -7,80% | 3 | ||
| 75 | Home | Manchester United | 76,20% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Burneley | 42,60% | 0 | ||
| 76 | Home | Arsenal | 25,00% | 0 | |
| Away | Manchester City | 41,60% | 3 | 3 | |
| 77 | Home | Watford | 8,20% | 0 | |
| Away | Tottenham | 25,00% | 3 | 3 | |
| 78 | Home | Crystal Palace | 35,40% | 0 | |
| Away | West Ham | 34,00% | 3 | ||
| 79 | Home | Getafe | -3,40% | 3 | |
| Away | Real Madrid | -11,40% | 0 | ||
| 80 | Home | Atlético de Madrid | -19,60% | 3 | |
| Away | Rayo Vallecano | 1,80% | 0 | 0 | |
| 81 | Home | Chelsea | 21,80% | 1 | |
| Away | Liverpool | 16,40% | 1 | ||
| 82 | Home | Deportivo Alaves | 2,80% | 1 | 1 |
| Away | Real Sociedad | -14,20% | 1 | ||
| 83 | Home | Real Betis | -2,40% | 0 | |
| Away | Celta Vigo | -1,80% | 3 | ||
| 84 | Home | Villarreal | -8,80% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Levante | -23,60% | 0 | ||
| 85 | Home | Osasuna | -9,40% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Athletic Bilbao | -49,60% | 3 | ||
| 86 | Home | Cadiz | -5,40% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Sevilla | -19,60% | 3 | ||
| 87 | Home | Manchester United | 78,20% | 0 | 0 |
| Away | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 53,20% | 3 | ||
| 88 | Home | RCD Mallorca | -11,20% | 0 | |
| Away | Barcelona | -2,60% | 3 | ||
| 89 | Home | Valladolid | -3,20% | 0 | |
| Away | Betis | -2,40% | 3 | ||
| 90 | Home | Chelsea | 11,60% | 3 | |
| Away | Tottenham | 31,00% | 0 | 0 | |
| 91 | Home | Lazio | 5,40% | 1 | |
| Away | Empoli | 5,20% | 1 | ||
| 92 | Home | Juventus | 6,20% | 1 | |
| Away | Napoli | 3,60% | 1 | ||
| 93 | Home | Milan | 12,40% | 3 | |
| Away | Roma | 8,20% | 0 | ||
| 94 | Home | Bayern Munchen | -11,40% | 0 | |
| Away | Mönchengladbach | -7,20% | 3 | ||
| 95 | Home | Bordeaux | -4,60% | 0 | |
| Away | Olympique Marseille | 20,40% | 3 | 3 | |
| 96 | Home | Levante | -16,40% | 3 | |
| Away | Mallorca | -16,80% | 0 | ||
| 97 | Home | Leicester | 54,20% | 3 | 3 |
| Away | Watford | 29,00% | 0 | ||
| 98 | Home | Real Sociedad | -3,20% | 3 | |
| Away | Celta Vigo | -3,60% | 0 | ||
| 99 | Home | Granada | -0,60% | 1 | |
| Away | FC Barcelona | 3,40% | 1 | ||
| 100 | Home | Real Madrid | -10,60% | 3 | |
| Away | Valencia | -6,00% | 0 |
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